It is very concerning that Australia does not have a long term population strategy. The current housing crisis is a symptom of this situation. We are struggling to find ways to rapidly make up for the housing and infrastructure needs from past growth. But there is no letup in the policy of high immigration that has applied in the 21st century.
Governments claim that population growth is good for the country. The headline measure used is increases in GDP but, in fact on a per capita basis, GDP is actually falling. ABS figures of real GDP growth per capita are negative in calendar 2024 (−0.7%) and 2023 (−1.0%) while the headline figures are 1.3% and 1.5% respectively.
It appears that the housing situation is only going to get worse as government policies are to continue with no prospect of the population growth rate slowing let alone stabilising. How can this happen without continuing degradation of our unique natural world? We have a responsibility to preserve our biodiversity. Tough decisions are required to actually implement the government policies to be ‘nature positive’. The current population growth policies are making this impossible and, sadly, promised changes to our biodiversity laws are still being delayed.
Both of the major parties quote targets for permanent migration but these ignore temporary migration where there appears to be no means of limiting numbers.
Outline of recent experience
At 30 June 2024 Australia’s population was measured at 27.2 million. The table below summarises the changes over the 21st century. The fall in migration during COVID has been made up by a large increase over the past two years.
Net overseas migration (NOM) has been over 200,000 pa since 2004 compared with less than 80,000 pa during the decade to June 2000.
The measure of population is technical. The figures above of NOM only allow for people who have been resident in Australia for at least 12 months out of the past 16 months. In the case of departures, it subtracts residents who have been absent for at least 12 months over the past 16 months.
Many temporary residents are not counted
The actual number of people living in Australia is considerably greater because of temporary residents who have not been here long enough to be counted in NOM. It is not possible to separate out temporary residents that are counted in NOM and those that are not. Many of those counted as residents would be New Zealanders who have been here for many years. By a Trans-Tasman Agreement they can come and go and are not counted as permanent residents.
The total number of temporary residents at 30 June 2024 was 2.338 million. This number has increased from 1.755 million at 30 June 2017. The number of New Zealanders living in Australia is usually in the range of 600,000 to 700,000 so they have not made a significant contribution to the increase.
If the number of other temporary residents who have been here for less than a year are added to the official figure the number of people currently living in the country is likely to be well over 28 million.
The main categories of temporary residents are students and workers (skilled and backpackers). Many of these people can eventually be granted permanent residency. The number of students at 30 June 2024 was 608,000 and workers under various visas numbered about 1 million. With pressure from universities and employers the government is reluctant to bring these numbers down.
In theory students are only in Australia for the length of their course but there are ways for them to extend their stay and may be granted permanent residency.
Growth projections out to 2035
The government does produce population projections. They are used for planning and budgetary purposes in the medium term. The most significant factor in these projections is NOM as our natural increase rate (births minus deaths) is reducing steadily over time. Given the lack of control of temporary migration these projections will be underestimates.
There is no contemplation of a reduction in NOM
The projection of NOM used for budgetary purposes over the next 2 years is 260,000, more than the average experience this century. But this estimate has already been exceeded in the current year by 60,000. The longer term assumption is 235,000 pa but the ability to control this figure is problematic.
The Centre for Population that comes under Federal Treasury projects that the population at 30 June 2035 will be 31.3 million. That’s another 4 million people to be accommodated in just 10 years.
Is this a responsible policy to expect to accommodate an extra 4 million people with their needs for schools, hospitals, transport, water etc? What will our cities be like?
We already are getting a picture of the changes that will need to be made to our cities with the NSW government policies for wholesale rezoning to higher density that will change the character of our suburbs and cities with great environmental impact such as loss of tree canopy.
The planning controls are much too weak to ensure that our streetscapes and building design will maintain a desirable quality of life. In our early days streets were wide enough to have room for shady trees. Just look at Darlinghurst or Kirribilli. Instead, the higher density plans being implemented by the NSW government will be creating heat islands.
We are still playing catch-up for inadequate housing construction over the past several years. The housing accord made by the Australian and state governments aims to build another 1.2 million homes over the next 5 years. Even if that can be achieved it will clearly be inadequate.
The demand for resources to cater for this increase is evident in the sad statistics about our biodiversity loss from land clearing. It seems this will only get worse as the paradigm of growth continues to dominate.
Control of numbers of temporary residents
One major problem is that we don’t have control over temporary migration. Governments over the years claim they are managing the migration numbers but this only applies to migrants granted permanent visas. This annual number was 190,000 for 2023-24 and will reduce to 185,000 for 2024-25 – big deal! The Coalition have indicated that they will reduce the permanent intake to 140,000 for the next two years and has provided very confusing messages about temporary migration. The only definite statement is a reduction in the number of permanent refugee visas from 20,000 to 13,750, a mean decision.
There is a large backlog of partner visa applications where approvals are counted in the permanent visa total. Under the Migration Act there is no scope to reduce the number of these permanent visa grants.
Students
In December 2023 the Labor government announced it intended to restrict the number of student visas in the interest of taking pressure off the housing crisis. But under the current legislation this is difficult. The response was a backlash from the overseas education industry. A reduction also depends on students returning home at completion of their course over which the government has little control. There are several means for students to stay on with, for example, a graduate visa. We are back to the previous expected cap of 270,000 student entries in 2025.
Conclusion
While the government is trying to reduce net migration, the demands for skilled workers and partner visas and universities are making this impossible. Even the projected numbers of 235,000 used in government forecasting seem to be optimistic. The Coalition ideas of reducing migration seem to be impractical.
Reducing growth is hard to do.
Having ramped up the level of immigration it will be hard to reduce it back to reasonable levels. The high level of immigration activity creates a vicious circle – more people > need more houses > need more workers, and so on.
If migration slows down the reduction in the number of new houses, schools etc to be built will be more manageable. A lot of workers will have to find alternative employment. Cutting back is hard to do but the longer we wait the harder it will be to make the change. But it has to be done. We cannot keep growing forever.